John Fredericks Commentary: NFL Picks Week 1 – Are the Bills Really That Good?

by John Fredericks


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Finally, week one of the NFL season is here! A lot of you are thinking: “I’m not watching the NFL, they are woke, they kneel during the National Anthem, they play two anthems, etc., etc.”

Seriously folks, who gives a rip about the NFL and their Twinkie-like woke executives. Pro football is about us: the fans—and the players. Most NFL fans are Trump voters, and after a season of phony lockdowns, they’ll be coming out in record numbers to tailgate, party, root for their teams and most of all – have fun. It’s called living again. And try locking them down – or requiring VAX papers at the gate for entry. See what happens. Make my day!

So, it’s opening week- stop whining and start living!

Here are my week one selections


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Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Too many question marks for both teams to lay points. The Falcons have a totally new offense, and then subtract Julio Jones. Matty Ice us now Matty No Dice-Sling and Fling. Plus they fold in the 4th quarter like a cheap suit in the rain.

Is Jalen Hurts for real? Who knows. Who cares? He’s not playing for Atlanta, that’s good enough for me. Philly + 3.5


Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

The Buffalo Bills kick off 2021 as a major Super Bowl contender, like the old Marv Levy days. Josh Allen is the real-deal and the defense has speed and toughness.

The Steelers on the other hand are coming off a disastrous 2020 late season collapse, plus they’ve lost key weapons on their offensive line. Big Ben looked dreadful at the end  of last year, and he’s a year longer in the tooth. The Bills are at home, where they are very tough, and their 90,000 fans will be hyped. Everything points here to the Bills.

That’s why I love Pittsburgh plus 6.5. Ever seen a Las Vegas bookmaker go broke? Everyone will bet the Bills.  Except me. Steelers + 6.5. 


Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

I love Joe Burrow, and the Bungles have a decent squad. The Vikings are on the road, where they typically spit the bit. They also stunk up the place last year. Give Burrow a game to get the bugs out and the rust off after missing the last half of last season with a leg injury. Cincy at home means nothing – their fans are all at the Reds game. Vikes -3


San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Detroit Lions

If Jared Goff is the answer in Detroit, it must be a really stupid question. The Lions are at home and its moot. They are in a pathetic rebuild. ‘Niners are for real. Lay the touchdown, no brainer cover. ‘Niners -7


Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Yo-Yo Julio! Let the fun begin in Nashville! 

The Tennessee Titans are now one of the elite teams in the NFL. Their offense is arguably one of the best in the league with Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones and Ryan Tannehill. Their defense is not the ’85 Bears, but it’s not the 2020 Titans either, who set the record for the lowest percentage of third down stops. They play together. Cards are good, but coming into a frenzied Nashville is an Arizona nightmare. Titans -3


Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

LOL, the Colts are always a media favorite. “Colts have a great defense. Colts have a great running game. Colts are all this and a bag of chips. Blah-blah-blah.” Russell Wilson just wins games. All cattle, not hat. Hawks -2.5


Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Washington Football Team

Remember what your father said: “Defense wins championships.” Defense also wins season openers at home. With a no name stout physical defense playing on a no name team with an ancient Ivy League quarterback – I love the ‘Skins here. They may have the toughest “D” in the league. They overcame tremendous adversary last year to make the playoffs- and make a game of it. Plus add in hard-nosed Ron Rivera who has changed the culture. Chargers had to fly cross country and now play at 10:00 AM PAC time. Not good. This is my best bet. ‘Skins +1.


New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)

Are the Jets still a dumpster fire? Yes. Enough said. Bet against them every week until you lose two bets in a row. That might be 2027. Cats -5.5


Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Houston Texans

LMAO. No pick. May the best 2-15 team win. BTW, welcome to NFL Urban Meyer. There a long list at the graveyard of failed college coaches in the NFL. Just to name a few: Barry Switzer, Rich McKay, Lou Holtz, Dan Devine, Dennis Ericson, Nick Saban, Bud Wilkinson, Greg Schiano, Bobby Petrino…the list is endless. No Pick.


Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Marquee match-up.

The Brownies have one of the best defenses in the AFC, and the Chiefs have that crazy man at quarterback who defies logic and gravity. Which will prevail in this one? My father Sam, now passed, had three constants in betting football: 1. Don’t bet against the Packers at Lambo. 2. Don’t bet against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. 3. Never take 8 points. It’s a trap. I’ll go with #2 and pass. No Pick

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-2.5)

Fins are the real deal folks. Balanced, speed, defense and they can score. Billy B cut Cam Newton: ballsy.

Mac Jones vs. Tua. A Roll-Tide dream. Love the fish plus 2.5. Fins + 2.5

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Saints should be a nine-point underdog. They are in a rebuild. But they carry betting sentiment. I’m a cold better. Pack -4.5


Denver Broncos (-3) at New York Giants

Zzzzzzz. Is it over yet? Is it Sunday night football yet?  No Pick, I’ll get another beer. Who gives a… No Pick


Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

I love the Bears plus 7. Defense vs. smoke and mirrors. Welcome to the Left Coast, Matt Stafford. The caviar phony Hollywood Tinsels will be throwing masks at you.

Da Bears +7 


Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

I am betting on the demented 85,000 drunk and rowdy Vegas fans to will their team to victory. Chucky lives for these games. Vegas +4.5



Washington +1.5
Titans -3

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John Fredericks is the Publisher of The Georgia Star News.
Photo “Josh Allen” by Erik Drost. CC BY 2.0.



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