John Fredericks NFL Picks Week Four: Brady Visits Gillette as Bucs and Chiefs Look to Bounce Back

by John Fredericks, Jack Fredericks, and Nate Perry


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Here are my week four selections


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John: I was on fire in week 3, burying my picks in a tornado of early wins. I ended the week with a Monday night stinker as the Eagles once again showed they can’t compete on the road.

As I predicted, JAGS head coach Urban Meyer is cratering before our very eyes under the real-men pressure of the NFL. It has wilted him like a cheap suit in the rain and he doesn’t have young, fawning reporters asking him softball questions in Gainesville or Columbus. He has to deal with seasoned sportswriters. Four winless games into his NFL career and Meyer’s sideline pain and postgame self-psychology therapy sessions are tough to watch.

Posting a 7-4 record last week ATS put me at 19-16 for the year, and a nice springboard into week 4. I’m hot, hot, hot!.

Jack: I went 2-7 last week, so that’s not good. I should have taken the week to reevaluate my lefty logic. It turns out climate change and vaccination rates may not be the best strategy for picking spreads. Maybe I should have spent my time scouring the injury reports or diving into AFC South matchups. But something tells me Kyrsten Sinema wouldn’t want me to take my job that seriously. So, in the spirit of moderate democrats, I did nothing. Here are my lefty losers. Maybe I’ll go 3-8.

Nate: I went 1-0 with my one lonely pick. I wish I had more to offer last week, but can’t complain about posting another winning week. Onto week 4 where I think ‘dogs will be barking all of Sunday.


Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons (-1) 

John: I love the ACS (Atlanta Clown Show) here. As silly as the Falcons are, the WFC is worse. Banking on what we all thought would be an awesome front four on the D-Line- like the famous Purple People Eaters of the ‘70’s Bud Grant teams, they simply have not lived up to potential. Also, Tyler H is getting garbage yards to make his stats look acceptable, but can he win games? I like the Dirty Birds at home. ACS -1.  

Jack: I can’t quit the Football Team. They keep getting clobbered by good teams and the QB situation is a mess, but the Atlanta Clown Show doesn’t inspire much confidence and I think it’s difficult to play in Walter Reed National Military Medical Center or wherever it is that Washington plays. Go Football Team. Football Team +1. 

Nate: These two teams are both a mess, they’re cruising in with 1-2 records, but realistically they look more like 0-3 teams. The offense for both teams is just not good. In classic #nopicknate fashion, I can’t recommend a bet here. I think the play to make here is probably the Clown Show, but I think there are better things to do than watch this game, or bet on it. No pick. 

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-17) 

John: The Bills are 17-point favorites! No, that is not a typo! The difference in personnel is really that huge. Even though the Texans will be coming off 10 days of rest, this game shouldn’t even be close. They could have 100-days of rest, it wouldn’t matter. This is also the last home game for the Bills before the VAXX mandate, adding extra fan pressure. Will we get another F-Joe Biden chant in Orchard Park? When you are up 35-3, what else is there to do? The whole city of Buffalo knows Trump won, and in a landslide, like this game will be. This is a laugher.  Bills -17.  

Jack: The Bills look like the best team in the NFL. Their offense is dynamic with major big play potential and their defense ranks among one of the NFL’s best. However, I can’t bring myself to lay seventeen points. If I had to take a team, I’d go with the Buffalo Cuomo’s, but my head says stay away. No Pick. 

Nate: This game is gross. I can’t see how you lay the 17, but I also don’t want to bet against the Bills. Their defense is outrageously good against both the run and pass and should hold the Texans in check. This might be a spot where the Bills finally get their offense going. I think that the Bills moneyline (ML) is probably a safe thing to use in a parlay to get slightly better odds for another game, but I can’t lay 17 points and pray that the Texans don’t find their way through the back door. Bills ML (-1500) parlayed with Bears ML (-150).

John to Jack: My big bad son is afraid of the spread. #Sad. Sinema isn’t afraid of Schumer.

Jack to John: You’ll lose this game and we’ll raise your taxes.


Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) 

John: If you are a Lions fan, last week’s loss was the gut-wrencher of all time. Detroit had the Ravens in a fourth and 17 on their own 10, with 20 seconds and no time-outs. Then they lose on a record-breaking field goal. Will they wilt or show life in Soldier Field against a hapless Bears team? This Lions team is better than advertised, the Bears are worse.

Da Bears were dreadful last week. This game could be an ugly matchup where Chicago’s defense needs to control the game until Justin Fields gets more game-time snaps. My gut tells me the Lions bounce back in this spot. Lions +3.  

Jack: I agree with Godzilla here. The Bears are unraveling and Nagy’s approval rating rivals only that of my hero, Sleepy Joe. The Lions should have won last week and I like getting three points on the road. Lions +3. 

Nate: We’re going into this game still unsure of who will actually be the QB. The good news is that this uncertainty gives a little bit of value because realistically Fields, Foles, and Dalton are all pretty interchangeable at this point. I like the Bears to win here, but just go ahead and take the money line, don’t lay the points. Adding the Bills in a parlay gets the juice from -150, down to -125 or 130ish. Take some of that juice off by adding a sure thing in the Bills. Bears ML parlayed with Bills ML. 

John to Nate: #NoPickNate becomes #NoSpreadNate


Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4) 

John: This is simple: No Christian McCaffrey, no Panthers. Dallas is for real, and Dak is finally showing why he’s an elite QB in the NFL. I was impressed how the ‘Boys manhandled Philly on Monday night and the short rest is less of an issue when you are home and home with no travel. Carolina has to throw the football 55 times. Good luck with that. Dallas -4.  

Jack: Dallas is notorious as one of the most conservative cities in America, which means I’ve never been and never intend to go. I wish I could impose a mask mandate on all these Texas teams who travel around the country infecting everyone with The Virus. That said, the Cowboys have been my only reliable winners this season so I’m going with the ‘Boys again. Dallas -4. 

Nate: Dallas looks like the team we thought they would be offensively with Dak under center, but the defense has been a pleasant surprise with Trevon Diggs elevating his play and Micah Parsons looking like a future anchor for the defense. Carolina is banged up and this looks like a game that Dallas wins easily. But, something just feels off to me. I’m a huge Dallas homer, but this could be a game where they inexplicably lay an egg after demolishing the Eagles on MNF. The play has to be Dallas here, but I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger. No Pick. 

John to Nate: “They are who we thought they were!” Dennis Green lives on.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) 


John: The loser of this game starts scheduling golf charities in January. The Fish showed real heart last week in Vegas, and are back at home. It’ll be hot in Miami. Listen, the Colts are a tough and game-bunch, but they continue to get biased spread numbers because of a sycophant fake news media that hypes them week after week. The gig is up, Frank. Go for a high draft pick. BTW, did I tell you Indy is the most over-rated team in the NFL? And Carson Wentz the most over-rated QB in the NFL? And Frank is a double-masker. Bad trifecta. Take the Fins. Fish -1.5.

Jack: I loathe the AFC South and, against my better judgment, I picked the Colts last week. The AFC South is fake news. I’m taking the Fish and I won’t even turn this game on to check the score. Fish -1.5. 

Nate: All right, let’s get exotic, and talk teasers. Teasers are essentially a parlay-type bet where you need to win each leg to cash a ticket. The payouts are generally lower, but the good news is that you can choose to add points. The most common type of teaser, and best, is 6-pt. teaser. It’s especially valuable if you can use those 6 points to cross over a key number like 3 or 7. A 6-pt. 2-team teaser payouts are generally -120, but vary depending on the shop. This is a great situation to make that bet. 2-team teaser Colts +7.5/Vikings +7. 

Cleveland Browns (-1) at Minnesota Vikings 

John: The Vikings’ 1-2 record doesn’t show it, but they lost by a combined four points in the first two weeks before an impressive victory over the Seahawks when their back was against the wall. This is a classic let down game for the Browns, on the road against a pissed-off Vikings. Meanwhile, the Browns have narrowly missed out on a 3-0 start. This game will tell us a lot about where both franchises stand in 2021. Nice game to watch. I lost 157 straight games betting on or against Minnesota either way, so I’ll pass. No Pick.  

Jack: The Vikings move the ball. So do the Browns. As the Godzilla notes, the Vikes 1-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story. This team is good. I’m not picking the game, but I love the over here at 51.5 points. Take the points and enjoy the shootout. Over +51.5. 

Nate: If you’re reading this straight through, you already know what I’m doing here. Take the 6 pts. and cross some key numbers to get Vikings +7. Zimmer has a good record as an underdog, so I’ll gladly take the extra points.  2-team teaser Colts +7.5/Vikings +7. 

John to Nate: OMG, pick a damn game. What is it with these Millennials? They drive me bat-crap crazy!


New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) 

John: Ok, I believe in the Saints. No, wait, I don’t believe in the Saints. Whatever. The Saints were impressive in going to Billy B-land and dominating the Pats. Whoa. Are they that good or is the Belechik re-build in slow gear? Their offensive line looks like a spaghetti strainer. Meanwhile, the Giants played another Big 10 game at home and coughed up a hair-ball, losing to the traveling circus road-show emanating out of Atlanta. I’m 0-3 playing on or against the Saints so far. Angels in Heaven say stay away. But the Jints are really a sad-sack bunch. Halos in a blow-out. Saints -7.5.

Jack: I lost a lot of games last week believing in the underdogs. That strategy is about as effective as the Senate’s ability to pass meaningful legislation through budget reconciliation. Saints score a lot of points and should cover here. Saints -7.5.

Nate: Now we’re getting to the fun stuff. Don’t be fooled by the two blowout wins that the Saints have dished out this season. The blowout against Green Bay was basically just a disaster from the Packers, and they victimized Mac Jones in New England, winning with almost their defense alone. The Giants aren’t as bad as their record indicates. This line looks inflated, especially against a Saints team that doesn’t seem to be able to muster much on offense in anything resembling a reliable fashion. Giants +7.5.

 John to Jack: Joe Manchin loves you!


Tennessee Titans (-7.5) at New York Jets 

John: Oh-oh. Trap game ahead. No Julio Jones. No A.J. Brown. Derek Henry will get 100 carries. The Jets will put 11 in the box. Will it matter? This is your classic let-down game for the Titans – a hyper team as it is — on the road against a dumpster fire masquerading as an NFL team — after two emotional wins. The game opened at 14, went down to 7.5, as bad as Gang-Green is. Who the hell is betting the Jets to drive this line down? Yes, it’s a dangerous game for Tennessee, likely coming out listless with both Pro-Bowl deep threats out this week. But Vrabel will put the fear of God into them at half-time. In the first three weeks, the Jets have lost by a total of 50 points. Let that sink in. Plus people who actually bet money on the Jets got the last gangster-bankster Wall St. bailout. This is real money, not AOC money.  Titans -7.5.

Jack: John picks the Titans every week because he’s a homer. I’ve been picking against them every week because it pisses him off. I’m not picking this game, because who in their right mind would play money on the Jets? Skip this game. Nobody cares about these teams anyways. No Pick. 

 Nate: Another game to take the points. Tennessee is overrated and the Jets probably can’t be any worse than they have been so far. There will be regression for both teams, and I think it starts here. Take the Jets catching over two-scores here. Jets +7.5. 

 John to Jack: Says the son who wore a Titans-McNair jersey all through middle school. John to Nate: you’re obviously doing this to aggravate me.


Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles 

John: Will the Chiefs be 1-3 and in last place in their division on Sunday night? No. Are the Eagles as pathetic as they looked Monday night in Dallas? Yes. The Eagles are looking at film right now showing a Chiefs defense that gave up 95 points in three weeks. That’s Jets-like. But the Eagles gave up 40+ last week to Dallas. That’s Texans-like. I never bet the over-under line, but I’d take the over line if I had to. I bet one over-under game in my entire life, many years ago. I took the over in an Oilers-Raiders Monday night game and the score was 0-0 at the end of three quarters. I went to bed. It scared me for life, I became a shell of my former self.

This is a must-win game for the Chiefs. If they lose and the Raiders or Broncos win, Kansas City is already three games behind first place in the division. Ouch.

Eagles will party in the parking lot. Then reality sets in.  Chiefs -5.5.  

Jack: The Chiefs are 1-2! I was so mad at their nonsense last week. I thought that game was a lock. Had I won, I would have gone 3-6, which is very respectable for a liberal. I’ll take a knee during the anthem and then turn on another game. No Pick. 

Nate: Chiefs have trouble putting teams away and seem to be constantly engaged in games that turn out to be one-score affairs. I don’t trust them here. They haven’t shown me that their defense can slow anyone down. This is a line based on public perception. It looks like it was designed to suck you in because the Chiefs are the Chiefs and the Eagles just got taken to the woodshed on Monday Night Football. Don’t overreact. It’s ugly, but take the points. Eagles +5.5.


Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6) 

John: The crazy nut-bag Cardinals vs. the bring a briefcase and an excel spreadsheet to the gridiron Rams and Stafford. I like looney-tunes Kyler Murray running away from Aaron Donald and gaining 30 on a third on 17. This kid Murray is a piece of work. The whole Cards team is a throw-back to the Air-Coryell, Terry Metcalfe and Jim Hart days. The Rams at home is now everybody’s chic pick with Stafford, etc. But it’s Sunday…and on any given Sunday…I’m taking the pet cemetery doggie on the road and throwing down a few. I love watching the Cards squander leads, too. It’s a train-wreck of a team but fun to watch – and bet on.  Cards +6.

Jack: This is going to be another shootout and I can’t wait. I love the Rams and fully expect them to best the Niners and Cards atop the NFC West. These teams are going to move the ball and six does seem like a lot of points to give, but I’m staying away from the spread. Instead, let’s take a prop bet. Cooper Kupp is -114 to have over 84.5 receiving yards this game. Stafford loves throwing to him and I expect at least one big play. I’ll play the prop just to have some action. Cooper Kupp 84.5 receiving yards (Over) (-114). 

Nate: The Rams look really damn good, this much is certain. I’m not even really sure we know how good they can be yet. That being said, I can’t lay the points with them in a divisional matchup here. I’m not playing it, but if I had to lean one way or the other, it has to be that the Rams stay dominant. No Pick.  

 John to Jack: What the hell is a prop bet? Is that like vaping? Is it even legal in Mississippi? I’m old school. #PropBetJack and #NoPickNate. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

 Jack to John: You’re old school in that you place your bets through a pay phone and when you lose $25,000 by November, your bookie sends you a turkey. Get with the times. We’re picking winners.


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) 

John: I’m doing the Seahawks shuffle. San Francisco is a miserable place to live, almost as bad as Seattle. Both cities, run by whacked libs, suck. So when both cities suck and have defunded cops, take the points. Russel Wilson’s + 3.5.  

Jack: Neither of these teams have an identity other than pissing me off when they can’t cover. No Pick. 

Nate: This is a must win game for Seattle, and I think they will improve. They can’t go to 1-3 before a date with the Rams. I’d be most inclined to tease them up to +9.5 if you have another game you like. I’ve already given out one money line parlay and one teaser this week and I’m pretty sure that’s my quota. No Pick.  

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

John: Holy Crap! Denver is 3-0! How’d that happen? Oh, their opponents are 1-8 combined. Yikes, I’m passing here. Maybe the Bronc’s are decent? Maybe they are not? Maybe Justin Tucker can nail one from 70? Who knows, who cares. Not me, not here. No Pick.  

Jack: Broncos are smoke and mirrors. As John said, their opponents are 1-8. I’m not sure why he’s shying away here. It’s probably because he hates the Ravens. I’ll take the points. This is a winner. Ravens +1.5. 

Nate: Ravens aren’t that good this year and have been ravaged by injuries. Denver’s defense looks elite, but their competition hasn’t exactly been stout. They should be able to slow down what little offense the Ravens can muster up. I’m not interested in picking a side, but the Broncos have been an under machine this year behind that defense. I think it continues. Under 44.5. 

John to Jack: Good analysis, I hate the Ravens.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6)

John: My serenade to big Ben: Turn out the lights, the party’s over…The fat lady is singing a ballad. All the diets in the world can’t help this immobile object be foot-loose and fancy free in a pocket. Next up for Ben: Dancing with the Stars (do they still have that? I tuned out after Sean Spicer lost).

The Pack is back. They’re at home. Steelers look aging, desperate and they can’t stop anybody. See ya later. Pack doubles down at home, Rodgers sends a message. Hello Lambeau faithful. It’s a cheese-head deluxe. Pack-Attack -6. 

Jack: I don’t like picking against Tomlin. The Steelers don’t have a quarterback and may end up cratering this year, which would put them in the running for the Matt Corral sweepstakes. But I can’t bring myself to lay six points on the world’s greatest celebrity jeopardy host. I’ll stay away. No Pick. 

Nate: I’m taking a side on everything for this game, spread and total. Packers are definitely a better team, but I don’t think they are a touchdown better. Take Tomlin as a ‘dog here. The defense has to get better and Tomlin usually gets things figured out to make his teams competitive. I like the Steelers here and the under. If you want to get weird and double your fun, split that total bet between the first-half and full game. Steelers +6, Under 45.5, Under 23 First Half.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at New England Patriots 

John: When the media is done playing up all the drama to make this blowout more than it could ever be, it’s just that: a rout. The Pats are Patsies, they proved it last week at home getting gutted like a fish by the Saints. This is my best bet. Brady knows this team, their weaknesses and he’s a little perturbed after last week’s fiasco in L.A. He’s got revenge on his mind. This line should be 16, not six. But the media-hypers have nowhere else to go. This is my best bet. The Pats do have a win! Oh, yeah they beat the Jets. Did I say this is my best bet? Mac Jones, welcome to the Tampa Bay defense. Ugh. Bucs -6.

Jack: The talking heads love Mac Jones, even though he really hasn’t shown much. All these rookie quarterbacks look like Tony Soprano four seconds before a panic attack. Tompa Bay isn’t going to lose two games in a row, and I don’t even think this will be close. The Fake News wants it to be close, but the Fake News also thinks Trump is going to run in 2024 and Virginia is swinging back red. Do your own research. Bucs -6. 

Nate: Another game, another big spread. I don’t know which team I like less, which is why I’m not betting on it. My instinct is that the Patriots will do that thing where they find a way to hang around and cover the spread. But I can’t trust Mac Jones in this spot, despite some of the issues with the Bucs secondary. No Pick. 

 John to Jack: Trump won, Youngkin will win and I’ll be Virginia Chairman of the Trump for President campaign in 2024. Three’s a charm! I lost the first two.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) 

John: Both teams come in hot!  Wow, what a great matchup. Why won’t Chucky put that drowned rat, Marcus Mariota, in? I never make it to the second quarter of a Monday night game before falling dead asleep with the Sammy the Cat in tow on the couch. Then I wake up at 3:30 AM – the cat split — and the TV is still on. It’s a ritual. No change here. No Pick. 

Jack: The Raiders are my team this year, but they really annoyed me with their garbage time nonsense that allowed for the backdoor cover. I’m taking the Chargers money line at -165. Should be a great game. Chargers Money Line (-165). 

Nate: The Chargers are a good team that probably hasn’t shown us their true potential yet. They are just always in close games which is why I can’t lay 3.5 points here. Chargers are probably the only bet to consider here, but I can’t bet it. Shop around and see if -3 pops up anywhere and jump on that if it does. No Pick. 

 John to Jack: Sorry son, money line not allowed. You have to bet the spread. Typical liberal tries to game the system. It’s a no pick. But at your dismal W-L record, I’ll toss you a lifeline. Its what dad’s do. But this is it.

 Jack to John: You don’t know how to make a table in a Google Doc. You won’t be able to change the standings anyways. Money lines count.





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John Fredericks is the Publisher and Editor In Chief of The Virginia Star.
Photo “Tom Brady” by All-Pro Reels. CC BY-SA 2.0.






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