Deep Blue Oregon May Cough Up a U.S. House Seat to the GOP

The famously blue state of Oregon may be the site of a November Republican victory in the 5th Congressional District. The current borders of OR-5 are not far from Portland.

Democrat incumbent U.S. House Representative Kurt Schrader (D-OR-05) finds himself taking fire from both sides of the aisle.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is targeting Schrader for defeat and far left groups are backing Democrat primary challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner in the May 17 primary.

German-owned Politico reported Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), the Working Families Party, and Indivisible are among radical leftists that are pushing Schrader’s Democrat challenger. Skinner’s congressional campaign has a poll out that shows her trailing Skinner by only three percentage points in the primary, a number that is typically within the polling margin of error.

Schrader does have a significant lead indirect fundraising over Skinner. As of the December 31, 2021 FEC finance deadline, he raised $1,410,275.70 for the 2022 cycle and had $3,563,160.62 cash on hand. Skinner’s raised $231,696.46 and had $207,690.68 on hand. The latest fundraising report is scheduled to be released in the coming weeks. The support of Warren and the other far-left groups is expected to give Skinner both a financial and ground game boost.

NRCC Spokeswoman Courtney Parella said, “Kurt Schrader can’t convince his own party – let alone a majority of Oregon voters – that he isn’t failing Oregonians in Congress.” She continues, “There’s bipartisan agreement that Kurt Schrader has failed Oregonians.”

Candidates in the Republican primary include former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer, investment executive Jimmy Crumpacker, and retired orthopedic surgeon John DiPaola.

A potential victory for Skinner would draw comparisons to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY-14)’s 2018 primary victory. The difference between the two is that OR-5 is not the deep blue Democrat stronghold that Ocasio-Cortez’s district is in a general election. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gives the current OR-5 a partisan rating of D+3, slightly better than the D+4 that it had prior to redistricting.

If far-Left Skinner or even Schrader emerges from the highly competitive Democrat primary, several political observers consider the November general election to be highly competitive for Republicans.

The Cook Political Report currently gives the race a “Lean Democrat” rating, but other political insiders consider the November race to be a 50/50 tossup worthy of increased national attention.

Two months are left until the Democrat and Republican nominees are decided.

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Aaron Gulbransen is a reporter at The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected] Follow Aaron on GETTR.
Photo “Lori Chavez-DeRemer” by Lori Chavez-DeRemer. 




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