Two new polls released show Herschel Walker and State Senator Burt Jones (R-Madison) with massive leads in the Republican primaries for U.S. Senate and Lt. Governor, respectively.
Current Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger trails former President Donald Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Jody Hice (R-GA-10) in both polls and has a massive deficit in the second survey.
The first poll, performed by the SPIAA Survey Research Center and released by the University of Georgia, was conducted from March 20 through April 8. The polling company elected to use two sets of data, one where the participants are not told that Trump has endorsed in the race and the second where they are informed of the endorsement.
In the GOP race for the U.S. Senate nomination, Walker has a 56.6 percent lead over his nearest competitor, 64.3 percent to 7.7 percent with 23.9 percent undecided. When the participants are informed that Trump has endorsed him, Walker’s lead margin grows to 68.5 percent over the closest rival, 76 percent to 7.5 percent with 14.7 percent undecided.
In the race for the Republican nomination for Lt. Governor, Jones has a 19.1 percent lead over his closest competitor State State Senator Butch Miller (R-Clermont), 29.7 percent to 10.6 percent with 54.2 percent undecided. Jones’ lead increases when the Trump endorsement is made known, 58.9 percent to 8.2 percent with people undecided dropping to 29.8 percent. That’s a 50.7 percent lead for Jones over Miller.
In the race for the GOP nod for Georgia Secretary of State, prior to Trump’s endorsement being made known, Hice leads Raffensperger by 7.6 percent, 30.3 percent to 22.7 percent with 39 percent of the participants undecided. After the Trump endorsement is made known, Hice leads Raffensperger 60.3 percent to 16.3 percent, with 18.5 percent undecided. The Trump endorsement in the Secretary of State’s race creates a 44 percent lead in this poll.
According to the University of Georgia statement on the poll:
The SPIA GOP Primary Poll was a live interviewer telephone survey conducted March 20–April 8, 2022 that included a total of 736 likely Republican primary voters in Georgia. Likely primary voters were respondents who had voted in the 2018 and/or 2020 statewide Republican primaries, who indicated they were currently registered to vote in Georgia, and were definitely or probably going to vote in the 2022 Republican Primary election in May. The survey was administered by the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia. Interviews were conducted in English.
A dual-frame statewide random sample consisting of approximately 80% cell phone numbers and 20% landline numbers was obtained through L2 (L2 is a sampling vendor that maintains a database constructed from state voter registration lists. Through commercial sources, phone numbers have been appended to the individual records (registrants) that make up these lists). The survey results were weighted using iterative proportional raking in order to ensure the sample was representative of the 2022 GOP primary electorate in terms of race, sex, age, and education. The calculated margin of error for the total sample is +/-3.6 points at the 95% confidence level.
The calculated margin of error for the control group is +/-5.4 points and for the treatment group it is
+/-4.9 points (both at the 95% confidence level).
The second poll was released by Landmark Communications, Inc./WGCL-TV. It was conducted on April 14, had 660 participants, and a margin of error of 3.8%.
That poll has Walker at 64.2 percent support, a lead of 55.4 percent with 14 percent undecided.
In the Lt. Governor’s race, Jones leads Miller 28.5 percent to 12.3 percent with 53.9 percent undecided, a margin of 16.2 percent.
Raffensperger trails Hice by a 16.4 percent margin in the race for Secretary of State. Respondents give 34.7 percent support to Hice, 18.3 percent to Raffensperger, and 33.4 percent are undecided.
The Republican primary in Georgia will place on May 24.
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Aaron Gulbransen is a reporter at The Georgia Star News and The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected]. Follow Aaron on GETTR, Twitter, and Parler.
Photo “Herschel Walker” by Herschel Walker. Photo “Burt Jones” by Burt Jones. Photo “Jody Hice” by U.S. House Office of Photography. Photo “Brad Raffensperger” by GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Background Photo “Georgia State Capitol” by DXR. CC BY-SA 4.0.