Breitbart
“My gut says” former President Donald Trump will win the election, Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, with a warning not to trust “anyone’s gut” instinct.
Silver, a statistician, writer, and poker player, says the election remains a “50/50” coin flip, a characterization that many political experts argue is true with just 13 days until Election Day.
Newsweek reported on Silver’s history of predicting elections:
- 2008: Nate Silver successfully predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states in the presidential election.
- 2012: He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states.
- 2016: Although Donald Trump won in an upset, Silver’s model gave Trump the highest chance of winning (about 30%) compared to most other forecasters, who largely dismissed Trump’s chances.
- 2020: Silver’s model favored Joe Biden, which aligned with the final outcome, though it underestimated Trump’s performance in certain states like Florida.
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