by Manzanita Miller
After supporting Democrats for decades, Black Americans are poised to make a marked shift away from the left thanks to the Biden Administration’s dismal economic record and abandonment of the working-class.
A striking New York Times/Siena College poll from early March shows the share of Black Americans who say Biden’s policies have “helped them personally” has taken a forty-one-point nosedive since last November’s Times/Siena battleground state poll.
Currently, just 21 percent of Black Americans say Biden’s policies have “personally helped them”, while three times as many – 62 percent – said Biden’s policies had personally helped them last November.
The poll also shows Trump may be on the precipice of earning around a fifth of the Black vote this November, with 20 percent of Black voters saying they would support Trump over Biden – an eight-point increase compared to 2020 exit polls.
Economic issues, as well as recent foreign policy disputes, are at the core of Biden’s shrinking support among Black voters, and there is little evidence this trend is reversing.
Black voters have a highly negative view of the Biden economy, saying by a wide thirty-eight-point margin – 69 percent to 31 percent – that the economy is in fair or poor condition.
Looking back at the economy four years ago to the spring of 2020, Black voters say the economy was better back then by a thirty-two-point margin, 52 percent to 20 percent. Consider this – spring 2020 was in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, at a time when millions of Americans were banned from their places of work and under forced lockdown. Yet voters still say by double digits the economy was better back then.
Biden’s stance on Israel has also been a sore spot for minorities, including Black Muslims. The Times poll reveals that a slightly larger share of Black voters sympathize with Palestine (30 percent) over Israel (27 percent). Whites and Latinos sympathize with Israel to a greater degree.
The “Abandon Biden” movement sweeping a string of Democratic swing-state primaries this spring is evidence of a growing share of ethnic and religious minorities withholding their support from Biden – and the movement is on the rise.
With economic issues and Biden’s foreign policy positions making him an increasingly unpalatable candidate to Black Americans, it is entirely possible that the 2024 election will result in a marked shift away from Democrats.
A recent Gen Forward poll shows 17 percent of Black voters intend to vote for Trump in November, and another 20 percent plan to vote for someone other than Trump or Biden, despite close to 90 percent supporting Biden in 2020.
Since Trump’s victory in 2016, the Black vote for Republicans has been rising fairly rapidly. After Black voters largely consolidated around Barack Obama in 2008 and again in 2012, Trump picked up additional Black voters in 2016 and again in 2020.
Trump earned 8 percent of the Black vote in 2016 – the largest share for a Republican presidential candidate since 2000 – and won 12 percent of their vote in 2020. Now Trump is within shouting distance of earning a full fifth of the Black vote according to recent polls.
Black voters are becoming less Democratic over time, and while a growing proportion are identifying as independent, Republicans are adding to their numbers at the margins. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans earned 13 percent of the Black vote compared to just 9 percent in 2018.
Democrats abandoning the middle-class has had huge ramifications on their ability to court working class whites, but the same self-serving policies have driven Black voters towards the right.
Americans for Limited Government Foundation’s 2018 nationwide survey of Black Americans found that while a majority are wary of the Republican Party label, many hold traditionally conservative views. We found four-in-five Black Americans (80 percent) believe that small business is the key to American success and the same number do not trust the government to spend tax dollars. There was near universal agreement (93 percent) on reducing individual tax rates and over half of black voters (53 percent) said the Democratic Party had left the black community behind while counting on their support.
Biden’s policies may have caused an irreparable rift with Black voters, and we are seeing a real-time revolt against the party in power among Black voters. Whether Black voters desert Biden for the Republican ticket at the margins or simply withhold their support in a protest-vote is yet to be seen, but the numbers are bleak for Biden.
– – –
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Photo “President Joe Biden Addressing Crowd” by Joe Biden
