by John Fredericks, Jack Fredericks and Nate Perry
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Lines by Draft Kings as of 10-23-21 3:00 PM
John: The Tennessee Titans got it done last week in Nashville and showed the world they could be the real deal. Racked by injuries to their vaulted receiving corps and offense line early on, coupled with an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets made them seem like the most over-hyped team in the NFL. Their stunning victory over what seemed like the invincible Bills last week-cemented by a last second goal-line stand by a beleaguered defense changed the narrative—and perhaps their season. Are they elite? We’ll find out this Sunday against the Chiefs.
If the Titans are the most over-rated team in the league, the Bungles are the most under-rated. This is a solid club that nobody saw coming. Joe Burrow wins games, the running game is formidable and their defense is better than advertised. They get to prove if they are playoff contenders this week against the Ravens, who are now favorites to get into the AFC championship game with the Bills.
I told you last week I felt a huge win-streak coming and I was right. I went 10-3, bringing my record ATS after six NFL weeks to a very eye-popping 43-21. While my boys dork around with teasers, props and parlays, I win the old-fashioned way- picking winners week and week out against the spread. Old school vs. New school. Boomer vs. Millennials. No contest. Boomers rock. This week will be another big one. I am hot, hot, hot.
Jack: I went 3-5 last week, which is about par for my season. Those 5 losses would have been the most embarrassing L’s of the week, but on Monday night, the girls Jr. High Basketball team that I coach lost 32-1, so that also wasn’t great. John seems to think that getting lucky and picking a bunch of winners two weeks in a row is “old school.” The only thing old school about John is his diet of well-done steaks and endless cabernet. I’d call his strategy lucky vs. unlucky. Also, I question his spreads, which always look fishy. He’s feeling his oats because he thinks the Trumpster will win in 2024. Trump lost. Loony libs are in charge. I’m going 4-4 this week.
Nate: I had another profitable week, probably because I made a bunch of silly picks like John. I have a few plays for this week and if you want to skip reading this and just cash a couple of winners play Atlanta -2 and Carolina -3. If you want to see me pick the rest of the board, then keep reading.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
John: I love the Bungles with the points here. The Chargers were unplugged last week, somebody turned off the circuit breaker. This is Bungles time- they are loose and fearless. Good combo going against the world’s best Tailback with QB by his name. Baltimore’s luck with last minute heroics runs out. Cincinnati will dance on their logo. Remember the Ravens danced on my Titans logo last year in the playoffs. What goes around comes around, chumps. For the Ravens, there’s a new sheriff in town. Joey Burrow. Pick: Bungles +6.5.
Jack: Once again, John picks against the Ravens. He couldn’t tell you anything about them other than he lost a Super Bowl wager he placed on the New York Giants in 2000 before he realized the Ravens were a legit franchise. However, I have to agree with him here, which is annoying. Bungles are playing well right now and I love getting almost a full seven points. This should be an easy W. Pick: Bungles +6.5
Nate: Disagree with the guys here. This looks like a spot where the Ravens keep rolling. I don’t have a pick for this game. Cincy is definitely improving, but I don’t trust them. If you must play it, consider teasing the number down to -0.5 with the Ravens. No Pick
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-9)
John: This is a rout. Rodgers feels young again, his Pack is playing with reckless abandon for the first time since Brett Favre was around and the Cheese-heads are going crazy again in Lambeau. A happy Rodgers is a winning Rodgers. Gone is the sullen disgruntled employee look, replaced with the exuberance of a rookie just called up from the practice squad. Meanwhile, WTC is sick franchise, going south again with a once revered defense that has collapsed into the nation’s sieve. They can’t stop a dripping bottle of ketchup. This is another blow-out in the second-half and WTC has zero ability to mount a comeback. Laugh all the way to the Latte. Pick: Cheese-Heads -9
Jack: Dear Football Team, I can’t quit you. Please cover a game. Sincerely, the Mississippi Marxist. Pick: Football Team +9
Nate: I’m inclined to agree with John on this one. Football Team has not been great, and Aaron Rodgers has been downright dominant lately winning five in a row. I don’t typically lay big point spreads (except last week) and I won’t do it here. I want to talk myself into betting WFT, but Packers are just too damn good. No Pick.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Miami Dolphins
John: Why am I writing about this game? Wait, I have to clean the cat-box. Much better use of my time. Plus Sammy the Cat likes a nice clean box or he meows his lungs out. The Atlanta Clown Show (ATS) on the road at the fish-sticks? Dentist, anyone? I’ll go out on a limb and take the Clown Show over the London follies. Miami was gutted by the 0-20 Jags last week. I can’t take anymore of this. The ACS is dreadful too. But its Braves-Astros in the WS. Bye, bye Brian Flores. Vegas has an opening. So does Washington State University– if you got the jab. Pick: ACS -2
Jack: The Braves should be playing game seven on Sunday. The Falcons won’t make the playoffs until AOC is named emperor of America. No Pick.
Nate: Clown Show! I think they will continue to improve, and Miami just isn’t great. Take the Clown Show and a veteran QB coming off their bye week. Falcons -2
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7)
John: That’s it, I’m betting the Jets. Just kidding, they are still pitiful. Do you know that the Pats are 0-4 at home? No way Billy B goes 0-5 at Gillette to a team he’s beaten like 97 straight times. If the Jets win, New England’s season is lost. They’ll be planning charity golf tournaments and after the Red Sox collapsed, all hell will break loose in Foxborough. Too much at stake for the Patriots to blow this game. Did I mention the Jets are pitiful? And the Pats blew them out at Jimmy Hoffa stadium? Pick: Patsies -7
Jack: Disclaimer: I haven’t watched a Jets game since Rex Ryan got canned. I don’t know who their QB is. I know that they play in New Jersey? And firemen love them? I hate this game. Only a degenerate like John would put money on it. Stay away. No Pick
Nate: This game will not be enjoyable. Neither team is fun to watch, and I don’t think this is the matchup where either becomes enjoyable. Watch something else. If you feel compelled to bet on it, however, look to the under. It’s somewhere in the neighborhood of 43 at the moment. Take the under in what should be a miserable, low-scoring game. Under 43.
Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants
John: The Giants stayed in the Rams game last week through the first quarter. They have already started to rebuild. As bad as the Cats are without McCaffrey, they seem to hang around a lot of games. You cannot bet the Giants for the next 100 games or so as their defense couldn’t stop the Afghan Army. Pick: Cats -3
Jack: The Afghans are strong people with an unbelievable will to persevere through unjust wars. John supported the war. So did Trump. Giants can’t win the game, though. Panthers should dominate. Pick: Cats -3
John to Jack: Fake news. I supported no such war. That’s the Cheney-Bush Neo-cons. Rumsfeld is your hero.
Nate: This is another one of my favorite plays of the week. I think the Panthers live in the Giants’ backfield with so many injuries plaguing the Giants. Don’t think too hard about this: Giants aren’t good, Carolina is better. Cats -3
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
John: It’s hard to imagine right now how the Titans’ defense does anything other than get shredded by the Chiefs’ offense. But that’s what they said about the Bills. A shootout type game always favors Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. That’s why I love Tennessee here. The Titans win over the Bills on MNF was a statement game for the Miracles. They finally got their receivers – and their Mojo– back. Moreover, the KC defense is like Joe Biden’s southern border: it’s wide open. You beat the Chiefs by keeping the ball out of Mahome’s hands. The Beast picks them apart, and Ryan Tannehill carves up the hapless Chiefs defense like a Christmas turkey. Two teams heading in opposite directions. Titans win the whole game by keeping the ball for 50 minutes. Pick: Miracles -4.5
Jack: Titans suck. Pick: Chiefs +4.5
Nate: Titans suck. They lose in a shootout. Chiefs -4.5 and over 57.5
John to Jack and Nate: Did you both cry like babies when the Titans broke your heart (and wallets) on Monday night? Like Ben Franklin said: “ A fool and his money are soon parted.” Another win for me.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15.5)
John: Yikes. The Lions are heading into abyss status. I told you Jared Goff was a Big 12 level quarterback. I’d lay 27 points here, 16 is a joke. The Rams are fierce. Lay the wood and don’t worry about it. Big points scare off my Millennial boys who are caught up in a world of snowflakes and safe spaces. Laying 16 points is manly. That’s why I’m the Silverback of this family until further notice. Pick: Horns -15.5
Jack: I’m going to ignore my own advice with teasers and tease this game with another favorite: the Cardinals. I went 1-1 with teasers last week and have been feeling pretty good about my ability to pick these spots. I want to get this line down to -9.5 for the Rams just in case they come out sluggish. There is an argument to be heard to go the other way and tease this line up to +21.5 for the Lions, but I can’t bring myself to trust the Lions here. Teasing this down to -9.5 gives me a great line on what should be a blowout and I can do the same thing with the Cardinals and feel good about both those picks. I think this is an easy play. Pick: Rams -9.5 teaser with Cardinals -12.5 (6 pt.).
Nate: Yeah, this is pretty much the type of game that I can only take the points in or pass. Matt Stafford will probably be fired up to be back in Detroit and that makes it hard to want to back the helpless Lions. Pass.
John to Jack and Nate: Huh? More Millennial-Latte gibberish.
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
John: Don’t look now but Vegas is tied for first in the AFC West. Nate says Raiders owner Mark Davis dug up the emails and sent them to the NFL so he could fire Gruden, who he thought was a lousy coach, but didn’t want to pay him for 10 years. So it’s an inside job. Vegas in the desert is tough, and now that Marcus Mariota is back on the sidelines with that clipboard what could go wrong? Las Vegas is a good team, but do we see an emotional collapse after a statement performance on Sunday? Typically, yes. But not this time.
The Birds are better than we thought, but worse than the Philadelphia fake news media thought. Basically, they are a .500 team. I like the slot machines at home with a playoff spot looming. Pick: Slots -3
Jack: Chucky is gone. The Raiders beat a bad Denver team last week. Is the NFC East as bad as everyone thinks? Hard to take the Eagles here as they travel to the West Coast, but the Raiders are so up and down that I sort of think they just lose this game. This also gives me the chance to disagree with John, who is going to cool off, crash, and burn. Pick: Eagles +3
Nate: Agree with Jack here. Take the Eagles. I don’t love betting on teams traveling across the country, but Philly got a few days of extra rest after Thursday Night Football and should be able to bring it this week. Hurts is always dangerous. Eagles +3
John to Jack and Nate: Are the Eagles flying Southwest? They’ll never get there and forfeit.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-18.5)
John: Cards are unstoppable and are likely going to the Super Bowl. Texans are pathetic and are going to the toilet bowl. Don’t be afraid of a few points. Cards hit a 50 spot at home and the Texans consider disbanding the team. Pick: Cards -18.5
Jack: Houston looks to be in the midst of trading Deshaun Watson. Miami wants to send Tua packing. But things are just not right in Houston. The Astros are in the World Series, while the Texans are a dumpster fire. Cardinals should roll, but I get to tease this line down to -11.5 and hope Arizona wins by two scores. Pick: Rams -9.5 teaser with Cardinals -12.5.
Nate: This is another one that I’m absolutely not going to bet or watch. Go look at your lawn or paint the bathroom. It will be time better spent, I promise. Pass.
John To Jack and Nate: Astros in six!
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13)
John: Trap game. Pure and simple. The Bears young QB Fields gets a little bit better every week. The Bears’ defense is good, but they are not really a pressure-up-the-middle type of team, which is what you need to bother Tom Brady. This one should be an easy win for the Bucs on paper, but games are played on the field. Bears come out hungry, and Brady sleeps through it. He’s 44, and just can’t get excited about these types of matchups. Bears might surprise here, as this is classic bettors’ bait and switch game. Vegas wants you to take Brady, they are daring you? Why? I bet against the public and the gangster-banksters. Pick: Bears +13
Jack: No Gronk, but who the heck wants to take the Bears? Brady wipes the floor with rookie QB’s and everyone knows he’s thinking about that loss to Chicago last year. Meanwhile, if you’ve bet the under on the Bears games this year, you’re 5-0. I’ll take the under and root for a snoozer. Bears won’t score more than 10. Pick: Under 47
Nate: I like money, so I seldom bet against Brady because he always upsets me. Yes, they are dinged up on offense, but if there’s one person who can overcome adversity, it’s TB12. Actually, I don’t know if that’s true. I’m not sure he’s experienced true adversity since the early years of the Bush administration, but playing the Bears isn’t exactly an adverse scenario. This is a pass for me. No Pick
John to Jack: I don’t bet over-under but I do like your U-47 pick. That’s why you have two master degrees, right?
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
John: The Colts are a competitive bunch, I’ll give them that. But going to the bay to play the ‘Niners after a week off to prepare is a far cry from lambasting the imploding Texas Chain Saw Massacre. Combine that with the Ponies banged up O-line and this can get ugly quickly. In the words of Gordon Gekko: “It’s ugly times ugly out there. And that’s when the ugly get going.” ‘Niners got beat twice a day with an ugly stick as kids. Now it’s time for revenge. Pick: Uglies -4.5
Jack: I’m playing absolutely everything here. It’s a Sunday night game and I decided I need some excitement in my life while I’m folding laundry and thinking about all my life’s decisions that have inevitably led to another week of work. The Colts are 7-2 against the spread, so I’m playing that. They are also +170 moneyline, so I’ll take that too. Then I want the under at 43, because the 49ers are 5-0 on the under after coming off a bye week. To round it out, let’s take Deebo Samuel over 4.5 receptions as a nice little pro. Bet the farm, fam. These hot takes are absolutely smoking. Pick: Colts +4.5; Colts +170 (money line); Under 43; and Deebo Samuel over 4.5 receptions.
John to Jack: We’ll count each of the four as a separate play, so you could go 0-4 or 4-0, etc, but this four way parlay took some onions. There may be hope for you, yet.
Nate: I agree with John here, unfortunately. I think the 49ers are catching the Colts at a good time. Combined with some big travel. Lay the points here. Niners -4.5
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Seattle Seahawks
John: I’m a Geno fan! Where have you been all my life Geno? The Saints as favorites on the road in the thunder-boom dome? I don’t think so. The Hawks hang around a lot of games. And people go there to be safe, because Seattle defunded most of their cops, then fired the others who didn’t want the jab. Their governor is the biggest dip-stick north of Gavin Newsome. It all adds up to a Hawks win. Once again, my football logic is impeccable. Pick: Hawks + 4
Jack: I’ll be in on a cruise Monday night after my absolute runner on the Sunday night game. No Pick
Nate: This game screams trap to me. I have no idea what to think of Geno Smith and the Saints remain a mystery as well. Enjoy your Monday night while tailing John’s pick since Jack will be in the Bahamas by then and I’m a coward. #NoPickNate
John to John And Nate: See you in Atlanta for game four of the WS! Go ‘Stros!
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Photo “Tyler Boyd” by All-Pro Reels. CC BY-SA 2.0.
