by John Fredericks, Jack Fredericks and Nate Perry
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Lines by Draft Kings as of 10-30-21 3:00 PM
I have been on fire the last three weeks. I went 7-4-1 last week, bringing my season record ATS to 50-25-1. That’s 25 games over .500 through seven weeks. I’d put that up against anybody in Vegas. But you are only as good as your last selection. In the famous words of Big Tuna, Bill Parcells: “You are as good as your record says you are.”
This week features a few must win games: Kansas City has to get it done against a resurgent New York Giants, or they risk missing the playoffs. The ‘Niners debacle last Sunday night at home puts them at risk this week against the Bears to start making January vacation plans. And is Joey Burrow the new sheriff in town? If they lose to the lowly Jets, it’s just the same old Bungles.
The boys are at the World Series game in Atlanta with me on Saturday so they get the week off. Both Jack and Nate say Astros in seven. Smart kids.
Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5) at New York Jets
Am I in an alternate universe? Are the Bungles a double-digit favorite on the road? Who would have ever predicted this in August? Well don’t look now but there is a new sheriff in town in the AFC North: Joey Burrow. This team is for real.
The Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their only bright spot was Zach Wilson, who won’t play Sunday. So the Bungles get a back-up no name QB at Jimmy Hoffa Stadium.
Who is Ja’Marr Chase? Can you say his name fast three times? Who cares, he’s a beast and he’ll be dancing in the Jets end zone as the boo-birds with paper bags over their heads pepper the stands. It’s a Halloween horror show for the Jets in the biggest swamp this side of K-Street. Bungles in a laugher. I’d lay 21 here. Can’t believe it’s only 11.5! Pick: Bungles -11.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Yeah, Colts, whatever. Here we go again with the national sports fake news media telling us all week how great the Colts are, how they went to the Bay and slapped around the ‘Niners, how Carson Wentz is really a Hall of Famer of the future, how their defense is great and how smart Frank Reich is. The line opened at Colts minus one, and the betting public, buying in once again to incessant pro-Colts media-hype, bet the spread down to 2.5. Suckers.
The Titans get no respect. What you saw last week was what we thought this team would be. Finally Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are off the injured list and playing together, and the defense has Bud Dupree back, and they found a pass-rush with Jeffrey Simmons. Add in the beast and this team is getting better every week. These games in Indy are always close, as the Colts equal the Titans physicality upfront. Tennessee will win the game outright, so getting a few buffer points is a gift. Youngkin beats McAuliffe. Pick: Titans + 2.5
Los Angeles Rams (-16) at Houston Texans
Another week, another Texas blow-out. This is like taking candy from an asleep baby. Bet the Rams, don’t watch the game, just cash out at 4:00 PM EST. Another joke fest as the Texans are really in a world of hurt, playing now for high draft picks. This is quite the rebuild. It’s trying to turn a pup-tent into a Hollywood mansion. The Horns almost got bushwhacked last week by the Lion cubs. Not this week. The Texans are really a sick franchise. Pick: Rams -16.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4)
Now we’re talking!
I love the Browns in this game. Baker Mayfield running around the backfield slinging passes all over the place, vs. Big Ben who has the mobility of a beached walrus. The Curtains won a few games they had to in order to remain relevant. All that did was buy the points down to three, which is just Steeler nation loyalty money. It’s the future vs. the fading past. I look ahead, not backwards. That’s why Youngkin wins on Tuesday. And the Browns win today. Pick: Brownies -4.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
How do you not really feel bad for these poor Lion cubbies? They give you 100 percent effort every week and fall short. They are winless at 0-7, but could easily by 3-4. Think about this: The Motor city sad-sacks had a successful fake punt and onside kick last week – just in the first half alone! They are a ballsy bunch. There is no sympathy in the NFL. On the flip side, who can figure this Eagles out? Not me, I am done betting them. The Lions are hungry for a win and playing at home. Pick: Lions +3.5
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Chicago Bears
You have got to be kidding me? Two teams who stunk the place up last week. I have better things to do with my time – like put up yard signs for Glenn Youngkin. I actually bet both of these two calamities last week, costing me two of my four losses. Who cares, this is the pig-bowl. No Pick.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
For weeks I said as goes McCaffrey goes the Panthers. Then, for reasons unbeknown to man or beast, I turn around and bet the Cats last week. You can’t fix stupid. They accounted for my third of four losses. The Atlanta Clown Show (ACS) has won three of their last four. I like scary clowns on Halloween. Plus I like Matty Vice in this spot, he got a new TV endorsement gig with one of my favorites, Ice-T. How’s that for analysis? Here’s my advice to myself: don’t do stupid stuff. Pick: ACS – 3
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5)
Welcome to the annual Miami week eight fish fry. Once high-hopes for the Fins have now turned into goldfish chaos. The firings will come any day: Coach, GM, QB, Cheerleaders, beer vendors, you name it. It’ll be an old-fashioned fish tank cleaning.
Meanwhile, the Bills are coming out of their bye-week after a tough Monday night loss to the Titans on a goal line stand – when they could have kicked a field goal and sent the game to OT. They are angry, rested, and playing a really bad team, who lost two games in a row on the final play a continent apart. Don’t be afraid of laying big points against lousy teams. Pick: Bills -13.5
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
Do you really believe in the Patsies? This line opened at six and now is four. More public money on New England based on their smoke and mirrors dismantling of the Big East Conference Jets. The Bolts are at home and legit. Billy B has to endure a cross country flight. I wonder who sits next to him? Not much convo going on there, right? The flight home will be worse. Only getting sloshed out of your mind on beer seltzer can help. Pick: Bolts -4
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-4)
So let me get this straight: The Jacksonville dancing Pomeranians lose 20 straight games, go to London, beat the fish-fries on a last second bomb field-goal and now they are only four-point underdogs on the road in the boom-dome? What am a missing here? Oh yeah, its Geno time in Seattle. I like Geno. He’s kind of a throwback to Billy Volek when he used to back up Steve McNair and win games. The Hawks still think they have a shot at the playoffs – “PLAYOFFS!!??” – so their ever-enthusiastic head coach Pete Carroll has them playing inspired football. This is a Geno G-normous day in Seattle. It gives their fans four hours to forget about their defund the police mayor and city council whack jobs. Pick: Boomers – 4
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3)
No thanks. I can’t bet on WFT and I can’t bet on Denver. Some games are just not worth any mental effort to break down. This fits the bill. Yawn. Time for a nap to get ready for tonight’s World Series game. Astros in seven. Yes, I can do math. No Pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at New Orleans Saints
Don’t overthink it. Let me make this simple: the Bucs has dismantled every team who dared to challenge them. This is no different. Champa-Bay is better this season then last years Super Bowl team. The Saints are an up and down yo-yo team. Home or away, this is not a conference game the Bucs will want to lose. The Saints are a .500 team on a good day. This is bad day to be a Saint. More like the ‘Aints. Pick: Bucs -4
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Here’s the Vegas scam line game: Vikings with ho-hum Kirk Cousins is a field goal favorite over the Cowboys with Dak Prescott having a pro-bowl year and making believers of the football universe?
This is another game to go all in. Somebody has to beat Dallas to get me off them. And the Nordics have to beat somebody of consequence to make me believe they are not an over-rated, over-paid, over-hyped, and over bet also ran with an over compensated quarterback.
Dallas’ offensive line has been the best in the NFL and has helped put them in a position to possibly have two 1,000-yard rushers on their roster. Like having your Dak- cake and eating it too. Don’t let the Vegas Wise Guys get you all discombobulated with flowery dribble about the Vikings at home, etc. It’s choke hold time. Pick: Boys +3
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Ask yourself this: “Hello self. Will the New York Giants knock the Kansas City Chiefs out of the playoff picture on week eight at Arrowhead stadium on a Monday night in front of a national audience? Well, self, what do you think?”
Self: “You really can’t be that dumb, can you?”
The definition of “No-Brainer” in Wikipedia: Chiefs minus 10 in this game. Pick: Chiefs -10
Bonus Pick: Youngking wins and Virginia GOP takes House of Delegates
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John Fredericks is the publisher and editor-in-chief of The Virginia Star. He is also the host of The John Fredericks Show weekdays on NewsTalk WJFN 100.5 FM and 820 AM.
Photo “Cleveland Browns” by Erik Drost. CC BY 2.0.
