by Jason Cohen
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Monday said former President Donald Trump’s lead in sun belt states is disastrous for President Joe Biden’s reelection chances.
Trump is leading Biden by 13 percent among likely voters in Nevada, 9 percent in Georgia and 6 percent in Arizona, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College survey. Enten on “CNN News Central” said Trump winning all these sun belt states would be rare for a Republican and asserted the former president’s lead is due to his coalition changing to consist of more nonwhite voters.
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“These sun belt battleground states, frankly, for the Joe Biden campaign, these numbers are an absolute disaster,” Enten said. “The smallest lead is in Arizona for Donald Trump, he’s up six. Look at this, nine in Georgia, 13 in Nevada. My goodness, gracious, my god. That is a hugely — no Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004.”
“How about these Great Lake battleground states? This is something that the Joe Biden campaign can work with. Look, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump up three, but that’s well within the margin of error. Wisconsin Donald Trump up one. Well within the margin of error, and actually a Joe Biden lead, well within the margin of error, up a point here. This they can work with, the Joe Biden campaign. This the Donald Trump campaign absolutely loves and it looks like a lot of the other polling on the sunbelt battleground states as well,” Enten added.
Trump has narrowed the margin with Biden among two key voting blocs Democrats usually win by large margins — black and Hispanic Americans, the NYT poll found. Biden is leading Trump 70% to 18% among black voters and 47 percent to 42 percent among Hispanic voters in the six swing states polled.
“The Trump coalition is changing,” Enten said. “That’s basically what’s cooking here. This is at least one of the big reasons why. So this is among likely voters in all these battleground states we just spoke about. Back in 2020, 84 percent of the Trump campaign’s, the Trump coalition was white. Look where it is now. It‘s 78 percent. The nonwhite portion of the Trump coalition, it was 13 percent in 2020. Look at this now, it’s 19 percent. So the Trump coalition is becoming more diverse. And of course those sun belt battleground states are more diverse than the Great Lake battlegrounds.”
Pollster Frank Luntz asserted in March that Arizona and Nevada will act as a crucial bellwether in choosing the winner of the 2024 presidential contest.
“But Arizona and Nevada have a very high Latino, Hispanic vote,” Luntz said. “That vote normally votes Democrat by about 15 percent. Donald Trump has pulled even with them and if that stays, it means that Arizona will switch sides, Nevada will switch sides.”
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Jason Cohen is a reporter at Daily Caller News Foundation.
Photo “Joe Biden” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0.
