Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s declaration of independence from the Democratic Party is bad news for President Joe Biden’s prospects for a second term, according to a new poll by United Kingdom-based pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies.
The poll of swing state voters, in partnership with The Telegraph, finds former President Donald Trump leading Biden in five of the six swing states. The former president doesn’t do quite as well with RFK Jr. in the race in critical battleground state Arizona, one of a handful of states where pundits believe the 2024 election will be decided.
Trump leads Biden by 5 percentage points (42 percent to 37 percent) in Arizona, by 3 points in Georgia (41 percent to 38 percent) and North Carolina (41 percent to 38 percent), and 2 points in blue state Michigan (40 percent to 38 percent), when newly minted RFK Jr. is included in the hypothetical matchup. Perhaps no surprise, Trump leads Biden by a whopping 7 percentage points in red state Florida (44 percent to 37 percent), and the 2020 presidential contestants are tied in Pennsylvania (39 percent to 39 percent).
When Kennedy isn’t included, Trump leads Biden in four of the six swing states targeted in the Redfield & Wilton poll. He’s up by 5 percentage points in Florida (44 percent to 39 percent), North Carolina (43 percent to 38 percent), and in Arizona (44 percent to 39 percent). Biden beat Trump in 2020 by a slim 0.3 percent (about 10,000 votes) in the Grand Canyon State, according to the official tally — although allegations linger about election law violations there.
"When Kennedy Jr. is included as an indy candidate, Trump leads Joe Biden in 5 of 6 swing states polled."
AZ
Trump 42% (+5)
Biden 37%
Kennedy Jr 8%
~~
GA
Trump 41% (+3)
Biden 38%
Kennedy Jr 8%
~~
MI
Trump 40% (+2)
Biden 38%
Kennedy Jr 7%
~~
PA
Trump 39% (=)
Biden 39%
Kennedy Jr… https://t.co/KyaYzAyuTR pic.twitter.com/O2awWDc4Js— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2023
If the match-up is a repeat of the 2020 election, victory for Biden or Trump could be determined by narrow margins in pivotal battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden carried Georgia by 0.2 percent, Michigan by 2.8 percent, and Pennsylvania by 1.2 percent, while Trump won Florida by 3.3 percent and North Carolina by 1.4 percent.
The new poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, counters pundits’ assumptions that former Democrat Kennedy will most hurt Trump in his third party campaign for the White House.
German-owned Politico last week concluded:
Despite Biden’s weaknesses, Kennedy’s independent candidacy could end up being the spoiler to help the president secure a second term.
Polls consistently show Kennedy is more popular with Republicans than Democrats, a phenomenon that emerged during Kennedy’s ill-fated primary against Biden, as the campaign put the activist’s longtime skepticism about vaccines in the spotlight, and Kennedy made a host of appearances on Fox News.
Kennedy is backed by super PAC American Values 2024, the brunt of which is funded by conservative mega donor Timothy Mellon and billionaire Gavin de Becker.
But liberals are clearly anxious about RFK Jr.’s impact on an unpopular president’s prospects for re-election.
“Our concern about all third parties is that Donald Trump’s support is limited – he’s well below 50 percent – but very stable,” Matt Bennett, the co-founder of Third Way, a left-leaning political strategy firm told Reuters. “Voters who would reluctantly pick Biden in a head-to-head with Trump might jump at the chance to vote for a Kennedy, even if they don’t know much about him.”
The Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll gives Democrats reason to worry.
“In the first edition of this monthly tracker, conducted on October 7th and 8th (and 9th in the case of Michigan), our Presidential Voting Intention poll finds Donald Trump clearly performing better than he did in 2020,” the poll summary states.
“Whereas some commentary has suggested that Kennedy’s run as an independent would hurt Trump more than Biden, our polling suggests an independent RFK Jr. candidacy may help Trump by a slight margin.”
About twice as many Biden 2020 voters as Trump 2020 voters say they would vote for RFK Jr. in Georgia (10 percent vs 5 percent), North Carolina (11 percent vs 5 percent), Pennsylvania (10 percent vs 6 percent), and Florida (11 percent vs 4 percent), the pollsters said.
The poll finds the economy far outpaces all other issues concerning voters in the six swing states, including abortion. On the economy, the Biden administration’s approval ratings range from a high of -3 percent in Georgia to a low of -16 percent in Arizona.
Voters in all six states give President Biden negative net approval ratings for his job performance.
Yet, voters are broadly unenthused about a possible 2020 re-match, according to the poll. Majorities of voters in all six key swing states polled do not believe that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump should run in 2024.
Be that as it may, it continues to look more and more likely Trump and Biden will be the two-party system’s choices for president. The latest RealClearPolitics average of national Republican primary polls, shows Trump trouncing the field of GOP presidential nomination candidates by 45 percentage points or better despite the former president’s legal battles against four separate indictments. Biden appears to be unchallenged by the Democratic Party establishment in his bid for re-election despite voters concerns about the octogenarian’s age and ability to serve another term.
About two-thirds of voters in all six states agree that Biden is too old to seek a second term as President, according to the Redfield & Wilton poll.
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M.D. Kittle is the National Political Editor for The Star News Network.
Photo “Robert F Kennedy, Jr” by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, photos “President Joe Biden” and “President Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore CC2.0.
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