More Investors Bet Inflation Is Here to Stay amid Disappointing Price Data

Investor at Work

More investors are projecting a “no landing” scenario where inflation remains elevated but economic growth continues at its current levels following a disappointing inflation report on Tuesday, according to Reuters.

Nearly one out of five fund managers polled by Bank of America predicted a “no landing” scenario as the most likely outcome in the next year, with concerns about such a scenario being intensified by a poor inflation reading that sent U.S. markets into a frenzy on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report showed inflation decelerated in January to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.4% in the preceding month, higher than expectations of 2.9%.

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Investors Scoop Up Commercial Real Estate

Empty Storefronts in Baltimore

Investors flush with cash are looking to buy up commercial real estate properties that developers are putting on the market at deep discounts as companies struggle to pay debts, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Many investment firms are looking to buy up discounted real estate after stacking up cash during the COVID-19 pandemic, including Ares Management, which is buying up 3 million square feet of office space with offers to buy up assets related to $500 million in high-priority property debt, according to the WSJ. Commercial real estate is facing around $2.81 trillion in loans that are set to expire through 2028 at a time when the industry is struggling with low demand and huge debt costs from high interest rates.

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Investors Pull Out Record Funds from China as Economy Falters

China Money

International investors have pulled billions out of China as the country’s economy continues to stumble and relations with the U.S. fail to ease, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Since August, international investors trading in China’s top exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen have pulled out more than $24 billion through a trading link in Hong Kong, according to the WSJ, the largest net outflow of foreign funds since the link was created in 2014. The MSCI China Index, which serves as a tool for investors to gauge expected returns in the country, has fallen 10% this year as China’s economy reports lackluster growth amid a real estate crisis and relations with the U.S. fail to significantly improve.

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Investors Flee the Housing Market in Troubling Sign for the Economy

Investors bought 30% fewer homes in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same time period last year, as high borrowing costs pressured investors out of the housing market, according to real estate brokerage Redfin Tuesday.

Besides a brief plunge in the second quarter of 2020 in response to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the decline was the steepest since 2008, and surpassed the 27.4% overall decline in home purchases nationwide, Redfin reported. The pandemic ultimately boosted demand for homes in suburban areas, sending investors on buying spree as they raised rents in those areas, in some cases by double digits, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

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Investors Show Concern over Defaulting Mortgages as Possible Recession Looms

Investors are reportedly concerned about mortgage defaults and are unloading Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities, amid record-high interest rates and a rapidly cooling housing market. 

Mortgage rates last week hit a two-decade high of 6.92%, a trend that has slowed the booming, often over-priced real estate market during the height of the pandemic.  

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Goldman Sachs Warns Investors High Rates Are Here to Stay

Even in the best case scenario where the Federal Reserve is able to combat inflation without causing a recession, it is unlikely to cut interest rates, Goldman Sachs analysts warned in a note, according to Business Insider.

The Federal Reserve has raised rates three times in the past four months, with Wednesday’s 0.75% increase bringing primary credit rates to 3.25%, one of the most aggressive increases since the 1980s. However, even in a so-called “soft landing” where a recession and layoffs are avoided, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates until “something goes wrong,” according to a Goldman Sachs note reported by Business Insider.

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Wall Street Is Freaking Out About One Major Recession Indicator

Wall Street investors and economists are sounding the alarm over a yield curve inversion, one of the most reliable indicators that a recession is coming, according to The New York Times.

The yield curve inversion, or when two-year bonds have a higher return than ten-year bonds, hit its largest spread yet on Wednesday, sending investors into a panic, according to the NYT. Economists and investors see this kind of inversion as a negative omen for the economy, and every recession in the U.S. in the last 50 years has been preceded by a yield curve inversion.

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Another Whistleblower Files SEC Complaint Alleging Facebook Didn’t Do Enough About ‘Hate Speech’, ‘Misinformation’

Person looking on Facebook with trending topics

Another former Facebook employee filed a whistleblower complaint Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission alleging that the tech giant misled its investors by failing to combat the spread of hate and misinformation on its platform, The Washington Post reported.

The former employee, whose name is not yet public, alleged that Facebook executives chose not to pursue adequate content moderation policies related to hate speech and misinformation for the sake of maximizing profits. The complaint also alleges that Facebook did not do enough about alleged Russian misinformation on the platform for fear of upsetting former President Donald Trump.

In particular, the complaint alleges that Trump and his associates received preferential treatment, according to the Post.

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