Tag: polling

Election Tilts Toward Trump as Suspicions Grow That Some Polls May Be Masking True Size of His Lead

Just the News
Donald Trump

A string of polls from legacy outfits has pointed to a shift toward former President Donald Trump in most of the major battleground states while Vice President Harris maintains a national lead, but some analysts see a critical disconnect between state and national polling that could suggest the Republican is on even stronger footing.

Harris currently leads Trump by 2.0% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 49.1% support to his 47.1%. That figure includes a Rasmussen Reports survey showing Trump with a two-point lead, a Reuters/Ipsos survey showing Harris up two, a Morning Consult poll with Harris up five, a Yahoo News poll with the race tied, and a number of other surveys. A New York Times/Siena College survey showed Harris up three points.

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New American Greatness Poll: Battlegrounds Are a Dead Heat

Georgia Star News Staff
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in front of The White House (composite image)

Brand new polling across the battleground states shows that Biden’s exit has tightened the presidential race, with Kamala Harris at a narrow 47-46 percent advantage in a head-to-head matchup, with 7 percent undecided. Harris is also +1 percent in a multi-candidate ballot test across the battlegrounds.

The American Greatness poll was conducted by North Star Opinion Research and interviewed 1400 likely voters, 200 per state in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.

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Trump Expands Push in Blue States as Virginia Appears Competitive

Just the News
Donald Trump in Philadelphia

Former President Donald Trump appears poised to invest heavily in Virginia in the 2024 election as new polling data suggests the Old Dominion could be competitive for Republicans for the first time in 20 years.

The state has not backed a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004 and trended increasingly Democratic over the years until GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s upset win in 2021 reignited Republican hopes in the commonwealth. The GOP struggled, however, in the 2023 legislative elections, with many analysts pinning the blame on the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, which forced Republicans to play defense on the issue of abortion during that cycle. The party lost control of the House of Delegates and failed to seize control of the state Senate in those elections.

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GOP Presidential Candidates Prepare for Critical Second Debate Without Trump

M.D. Kittle

If Wednesday’s second GOP presidential primary debate proves to be anything like the first, we’re in for a night of political punches and maybe a rhetorical gang fight or two as the candidates look to score points in another Trump-less bout.

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Commentary: Democrats’ November Nightmare Could Finally Be Coming True

Admin

Despite what you may have read or heard, the Republicans running in this cycle have an advantage that may, at this point, be dispositive.

A recent batch of polling has made it clear that the issues voters consider most important are the same issues on which they most trust Republicans.

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Commentary: Talking Heads Push One Predictor to Key Elections but Ignore the Raw Numbers Behind Them – and That Changes Everything

Admin

There has been a lot of talk during this election cycle about “voter enthusiasm;” which side has it, what are its causes, and what might it all mean for the final result. Much of it is propaganda that should be ignored, but there are some numbers and data that can help illuminate the terrain. All that attention is appropriate, given that each and every election depends entirely on who shows up to vote.

Let’s start with the propaganda.

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RNC Reports Gains in Black Voters in Georgia Gubernatorial Race

Peter D'Abrosca

According to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, Georgia’s incumbent Republican governor has a slight edge over second-time Democrat challenger Stacey Abrams. 

AJC says that Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leads Abrams by five points in the duo’s rematch of the 2018 gubernatorial race in the Peach State. 

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Majority of Americans Oppose FBI Investigation of Parents at School Board Meetings, Survey Finds

The Center Square
Merrick Garland

The majority of Americans oppose the Biden administration’s plans to monitor and investigate outspoken parents at school boards meetings, new polling from Convention of States Action reveals.

The poll found 57% of those surveyed do not support the announcement while 19.8% are in favor. The rest are not sure.

“…One can plainly see that those who are aware that Merrick Garland made this announcement oppose him by large majorities, while there’s a group who marked ‘not sure’ because they don’t know about his announcement or don’t know enough about it,” said Mark Meckler, president of Convention of States Action.

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Legendary Pollster Scott Rasmussen Weighs in on Recent Polls and Outlines Voting Models That Differ Between Democrats and Republicans

Julie Carr

Monday morning on The John Fredericks Show, host John Fredricks welcomed Pollster Scott Rasmussen to the show to weigh in on polls and discuss the dynamics of mail-in voting for Democrats and in-person voting for Republicans on election day.

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Commentary: The Exceptional Catalog of Polling Failure

Georgia Star News Staff

The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election, even in this year’s race: Could the polls be wrong? If they are, they likely will err in unique fashion. The history of election polling says as much.

That history tells of no greater polling surprise than what happened in 1948, when President Harry Truman defied the polls, the pundits and the press to defeat Thomas E. Dewey, his heavily favored Republican foe.

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Commentary: Fear of a 2016 Repeat Inspires Anti-Trump Hysteria

Georgia Star News Staff

Over the past four years, American news organizations have not merely shredded their own credibility, but have piled those tattered shreds into a heap, poured gasoline onto the pile, and incinerated it. Anyone who still believes what they see on CNN or read in the New York Times is in the throes of a delusion. As much as we might wish to laugh at the plight of the media, now so obviously lost in the helpless hysteria of Trump Derangement Syndrome, we are not better off as a nation as a result of the catastrophe that has befallen American journalism.

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Three-Quarters of Voters Say Faith is Important in Their Personal Lives

Georgia Star News Staff

The vast majority of U.S. voters say their religious faith plays an important role in their personal life, according to a new Just the News Daily Poll with Scott Rasmussen.

A full 72% of voters say that their “religion or faith” is either somewhat or very important to them. Just 24% of voters said religion holds little to no significance in their personal lives.

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